Are We Really Screwed with the Senate?

Call me an optimist, but I just don’t think the sky is falling. The poll number look awful, but the metrics of individual races paint a different picture. Let’s look at individual races and think about the metrics here.

New Hampshire

I’m pretty optimistic about this race for several reasons. New Hampshire has trended blue for some time now. Even though there could be some reverberation from the Scott Brown uprising, the fact is that Martha Coakley was an awful candidate who didn’t campaign, while Scott Brown pounded the pavement. The exact opposite is at play here. Kelly Ayotte was an appointed Attorney General who hasn’t run for a major election in her life, while Hodes is an experienced and effective campaigner who represents the more populous congressional district. Ayotte is also a blank slate who is seen as too moderate by conservatives and too conservative by moderates. She’s also facing teabag blowback for the same reason. I feel good about Paul Hodes chances.

Ohio

I will admit that I prefer Jennifer Brunner here, although her anemic fundraising is a cause for concern. But the bigger picture here is the fact that Rob Portman was the United States Trade Representative for the Bush administration. That’s right, a guy who lorded over Bush free trade policies is going to run for statewide office in Ohio. Come on now! The opposition research writes itself. Portman can’t buy his way out of the reputation as being an outsourcer and I think that once we’re through the primary, the Dems will nail Portman to the cross that is his record on trade.

Delaware

While Mike Castle is very popular, he’s also old. He hasn’t run a competitive election for some time. And the fact is that elections are a lot of work. I just don’t see Castle putting in the amount of hustle and bustle that’s needed to win office. Coons was the best candidate the Dems could get not named Biden or Carney and if he hustled and hits the pavement, he can absolutely win this seat. I’m also counting on Joe Biden campaigning heavily for Coons to save his old seat.

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